Spaniards go to the polls on Sunday to vote in an early general election that could see it return to the right and, more crucially, the far-right enter a national government for the first time since the Franco dictatorship nearly half a century ago.
The outcome will determine whether Spain – the European Union’s fourth-largest economy, with about 48 million people – follows a growing trend in Europe, where far-right parties are growing in popularity and in some cases gaining power by entering governments as junior partners.
How did we get here?
Spain has managed to stabilize its economy and politics after years of upheavals marked by a devastating economic crisis, a protracted separatist conflict in Catalonia and repeated failures to form a government.
The current Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, has been in power for five years. He leads a fragile coalition government made up of various left-wing parties, including his own Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party.
Still, Mr. Under Sánchez’s leadership, Spain has enjoyed a period of strong economic growth and low inflation. He is popular in the European Union for his progressive and pro-European policies.
Spain did not elect a new parliament until November. But after the Socialists and their allies suffered crushing defeats in regional and municipal elections in May, Mr. Sánchez dissolved parliament and called snap elections for this Sunday. He said the result of the vote sent a “message beyond” local discontent and he took “personal responsibility for the results”.
This move was done by Mr. It is seen as an attempt to remobilize Sánchez’s supporters and stem the steady decline in his coalition government’s popularity. But it opened the way for the conservative Popular Party to return to power earlier than expected – perhaps in alliance with the far-right.
What is at stake?
Spain has long been considered a bulwark against the rise of nationalism in Europe. While populist and right-wing victories piled up across the continent, nationalist forces in Spain failed to gain a foothold, with Spaniards traumatized by General Francisco Franco’s four-decade dictatorship.
That began to change in recent years after a separatist movement in Catalonia, northeastern Spain, helped revive nationalist sentiment. The main catalyst of that resurgence, Vox — a party with an anti-immigrant agenda and a history of opposing LGBTQ rights and questioning climate change — is now expected to win about 13 percent of Sunday’s vote.
The result would have no major implications if the Popular Party, which is leading the polls with around 34 percent of voting intentions, does not need Vox’s support to govern. But most studies suggest this is the first time the far-right could enter the Spanish government since democracy returned in the 1970s.
The Popular Party has declined to say whether it wants to govern with Vox. But it has already forged several local coalition deals with the far-right since May’s election, a move many see as a harbinger of a broader national alliance.
During the campaign, Mr. Sánchez and his allies have focused on the conservatives’ threat to bring Vox into government, saying Sunday’s election will be a choice between liberal democracy and right-wing populism. “The vote will make clear whether the Spanish people want a government in favor of Joe Biden or Donald Trump, Lula da Silva or Jair Bolsonaro,” Mr. Sanchez said.
If the Left retains power, the Socialists, which have about 28 percent of the vote, could form a coalition with Sumar, a platform of left-wing parties.
Whoever wins, the next prime minister will have to deal with concerns about rising fuel prices, along with other long-term issues, including increasingly severe droughts and the flow of African migrants risking their lives to reach Spain. The country takes over the presidency of the Council of the European Union this month, and the outcome of the vote could mean Spain changes its leadership while driving the continent’s political agenda.
What are the problems?
Mr. Under Sánchez’s leadership, the Spanish economy rebounded from a low point in 2020, at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, to growth rates above 5 percent in both 2021 and 2022. The country’s gross domestic product is predicted to expand by 1.9 percent this year, faster than most EU countries.
The Spanish government has raised the minimum wage by nearly 50 percent since 2018 and managed to curb inflation to one of the lowest levels in Europe.
The Popular Party and Vox have strongly criticized these laws, saying they sow social divisions. In particular, he attacked the law on sexual consent, also known as the “Only Yes Means Yes” law, which changed sentencing requirements and created a loophole to cut prison time for hundreds of convicted sex offenders.
Alberto Núñez Feijoo, leader of the Popular Party, is also Mr. Sánchez has been accused of fueling separatism by deeply polarizing the votes of pro-Catalan and Basque pro-independence parties in parliament. He promised to repeal any law passed with the support of EH Bildu, the left-wing Basque separatist party led by Arnoldo Otegi, a convicted member of the disbanded ETA terror group.
And despite strong economic growth, Spain still has the highest unemployment rate of all European Union countries, and the purchasing power of many Spaniards remains weak, fueling frustrations – evidence that, according to the opposition, the economic recovery is not complete.
How do elections work and what happens next?
All 350 seats in Spain’s lower house of parliament, which appoints the prime minister, are up for grabs, along with two-thirds of the Senate, the upper house.
Polling stations will open at 9 am and close at 8 pm on Sunday in most cities. Exit polls are expected to be released soon in the Spanish news media, but no official results are expected until after nightfall.
And even if the results are known, Spain is unlikely to have a new prime minister for several weeks, as parliament needs to reconvene and the winning party must enter into negotiations to form a governing coalition — a process that could take weeks, if not months. (All polls have ruled out the possibility of a single party getting an absolute majority in Parliament.)
If none of the planned coalitions – the Popular Party and Volks, or the Socialists and Sumar – meet the threshold necessary to reach a majority in parliament, they will have to turn to smaller, regional parties for support.
