Russia’s disruption of Ukraine’s grain exports could exacerbate hunger in some countries facing shortages, although as long as grain prices remain relatively stable, the crisis is unlikely to be catastrophic in the short term, aid officials said Thursday.
Moscow this week concluded a deal under which Ukraine, one of the world’s leading grain producers, was able to export its food crops in the face of an effective blockade of its ports by the Russian Black Sea Navy.
For a year, the agreement helped stabilize grain prices and alleviate global food shortages. But the end of the deal has already caused grain prices to rise again and will no doubt continue to create instability in grain markets and supplies, aid officials said.
“This is something that will further disrupt the market,” said Arif Hussain, chief economist at the United Nations’ World Food Programme. “That’s troubling.” He added that this would add to the problems for countries whose economies are still recovering from the coronavirus pandemic.
Grain prices rose sharply on Wednesday, but not to the high levels seen at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion nearly 17 months ago. Even if grain prices do not skyrocket, countries in the Middle East and Africa will have to pay higher transportation costs from grains farther away than Ukraine, and shipping times will also increase, Mr. Hussain said.
Still, there are other countries that produce grain, and the flow of Ukrainian grain is not the only factor affecting prices. Others include climate and crops in other countries, including Brazil and Russia, said David Laborde, director of the Agrifood Economics Division at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization. Brazil exported twice as much corn as Ukraine under the deal, he said, and Russia’s wheat harvest was strong last year.
“We have other countries in the world ready to sell,” said Dr. Laborde said.
Arnaud Petit, executive director of the International Grains Council, an intergovernmental body, said the week’s events would “add some pressure on markets,” adding that prices would not return to levels seen 17 months ago.
International Rescue Committee’s regional emergency director for East Africa, Shasvat Saraf, said the suspension of Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea would affect some countries more than others because they are already facing a serious problem of hunger. He pointed to Somalia and South Sudan in East Africa as examples, saying some 50 million people in the region are “extremely food insecure”.
He said the barriers are “an aggravating factor that increases vulnerability” for people who have already lost their livelihoods, been forced to flee their homes and, in some cases, are already dependent on aid assistance.
