Britain’s Conservative Party, fearing to lose all three parliamentary by-elections this week, managed to cling on to victory in one of them. But the Conservatives lost the other two seats by wide margins, spelling trouble for the upcoming general election. Here are four takeaways from the vote.
Sunak is down but not out
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, rocked by Britain’s faltering economy and a series of scandals in his party, was seen as the leader of a zombie government, destined for defeat by the opposition Labor Party. The election results will not change that negative outlook, but a surprise Conservative win in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, previously held by Boris Johnson, will remove its invincibility mantle.
Mr Sunak received relief on the economic front this week, with the announcement that inflation had fallen more than expected in June, while still remaining high. That opens the door for the prime minister to achieve one of his government’s key goals: cutting the inflation rate in half by the end of this year.
In a surprisingly upbeat visit to a cafe in Uxbridge on Friday, Mr Sunak told Sky News, “The message I take away is that we have to double down, stick to our plan and deliver to the people.” The results, he said, “when faced with the real reality of the Labor Party, when there is a real choice on a matter of substance, people vote Conservative.”
That could be the blueprint for Mr. Sunak’s election, which he must call by January 2025. They are banking that the economy has recovered enough that the Conservatives will be able to lead Britain through a tough expansion and convince voters that a switch to Labor is too big a risk.
Tactical voting threatens the Tories
In Britain’s political system, a Member of Parliament is elected to represent one of 650 electoral districts, and contests are fought on a winner-takes-all basis. The candidate who gets the most votes becomes the MLA, but the votes of those who have preferred someone do not count for anything.
So, voters are often faced with a dilemma: should they vote for the person they really want, even though they have no real chance of winning, or should they vote for someone who is better positioned to defeat the candidate they dislike? Tactical voters tend to make the latter of those two choices, and as at other times in the past, this tendency is now damaging to the unpopular Conservative Party.
In Somerton and Frome in southwest England, the centrist Liberal Democrats swept to victory, but not just because traditional Conservative supporters switched to them. In the words of Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, Labor supporters “gave us their support” in voting for Sarah Dyke to defeat the Tory candidate. The same thing seems to have happened in reverse in Selby and Ainsty in northern England, which Labor won.
Tactical voting only really works for opposition parties when it is clear which of them is best placed to defeat the Conservatives. But the trend is ominous for Mr Sunak because, after severe unpopularity, the Liberal Democrats are recovering, positioning themselves. As staunch opponents of the Tories, they hope to win some of the Tory heartland in southern England.
The hallmarks of these by-elections are that when the next general election comes, Mr. Sunak faces a real electoral squeeze.
Uxbridge shows all politics locally
With narrow victories in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Mr. Sunak’s Conservatives, despite their difficulties on the national stage, proved their mettle as campaigners in an area outside London.
Their winning candidate, Steve Tuckwell, was a former postal worker who stacked supermarket shelves when he was young. His campaign was mostly run by scandal-plagued former Prime Minister Mr. Johnson refused, holding the seat until he resigned from Parliament, prompting a contest to replace him.
But Mr. As Tuckwell acknowledges, the expansion of the Ultralow Emissions Zone, or ULEZ, into outer London, including Uxbridge, boosted support for the Tories. Under the scheme, drivers of older, more polluting, cars would be charged £12.50 or $16 a day to use them – a charge that is naturally unpopular with owners of aging vehicles.
The expansion of the zone, which already operates in central London, was the brainchild of the city’s Labor mayor, Sadiq Khan, and the Conservatives positioned themselves as its main opponents. Mr. Khan argues. But at a time of economic stress, the vote in Uxbridge could spark a wider debate about who will pay the costs of transitioning to a green economy.
A bell of hope for workers
Of the three races, the landmark result in Selby and Ainst has become the best bellwether for Britain’s long-term political direction. The Conservatives have held the district in North Yorkshire since it was created in 2010, a period that coincided with the party being in government. To win there, Labor had to overturn the largest Conservative majority in a by-election since the Second World War.
A rural area with a heritage of coal mining, Selby and Ainsty is not a classic “red wall” or Labor stronghold, the kind of district where the party lost heavily to the Conservatives in the 2019 general election. But Labor’s win there suggests the party can compete to regain lost seats in other districts in the Midlands and northern England, which are crucial to winning a parliamentary majority.
The Labor victory resonates for symbolic reasons: Selby and Ainst are not far to the south of Mr Sunack’s district in North Yorkshire. The new Labor member of parliament, Keir Mather, 25, shares the first name of party leader Keir Starmer, who was named after Keir Hardy, Labour’s first parliamentary leader.
On a triumphant visit to the district, Mr Stormer gestured to the young winner and joked, “This is the first time I’ve been able to say ‘I’ve done well, Keir.'” The result, he said, was a “vote for change”.
