Humanitarian agencies and officials have warned that Russia’s withdrawal from a grain deal with Ukraine that has fed millions of people in Africa over the past year could increase food security in several countries already reeling from multiple crises.
According to Allison Huggins, deputy Africa director of the humanitarian organization Mercy Corps, countries in the Horn of Africa such as Somalia and Ethiopia could be hardest hit.
“When you combine conflict, drought and climate change with severe food insecurity, the effect can be catastrophic,” he said.
Korir Sing’oi, a top official in Kenya’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, called that Russia’s decision to “stab in the back.”
After grain prices soared last year, millions of additional people in Africa faced severe food insecurity in a continent already struggling to feed their hungry. Leaders of African countries pledged to develop local crops, and Russia promised fertilizer and grain.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative provided a short-term solution, freeing up grain from Ukraine, which helped lower grain prices from other producing countries.
For example, the World Food Program purchased 725,000 metric tons of grain through the deal, half of which was dedicated to the East African countries of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. Algeria, Morocco and Egypt are other important destinations for grain shipments.
By July, the World Food Program had secured 80 percent of the grain needed for 2023, said Brenda Tariuki, the group’s communications director for East Africa. But reserves could deplete rapidly as humanitarian demands grow in volatile regions, he said.
“In the short term, we’re OK,” Ms. Tariuki said. “But if the deal isn’t renegotiated in the near future, it’s only a matter of time before we run out of grain.”
Other regions of the continent, including West and Central Africa, are less dependent on Ukrainian grain.
And according to wheat importers, good harvests last year replenished reserves, reducing higher prices in 2022.
“We will be secure for the next four to six months, thanks to high reserves,” said Rimon Hajjar, a major flour producer in West Africa’s Burkina Faso. “That’s it for now. It’ll be more interesting after the summer.
Over the past year, Russia has also started supplying wheat to countries like Mali at discounted prices. In recent weeks, at least two Russian ships, each carrying 25,000 tons of wheat, have arrived in Guinea’s port of Conakry. It is unclear whether other countries are receiving Russian grain.