Credit must be given where credit is due. Simplicius 76 is an anonymous Substock writer who has written the best analysis I’ve seen of the tactical and strategic dimensions of the war in Ukraine and the impending Russian invasion. Russia is doing what it has done throughout history in major ongoing conflicts – ie, Maskirovka (concealing its plans and movements). Russia is moving troops and equipment to the fronts in the north, east and south. They are currently attacking in several different sectors, forcing Ukraine to frantically redeploy forces as it tries to deal with new threats that are emerging like a raging wildfire.
Here are links to four recent articles by Simplicius76. If you want to understand what happened and what will happen in the coming weeks, read the content. The first article discusses in depth the erroneous assumptions made about the expected Russian invasion:
His article, All Seeing Eye: Can Russia Break Through the West’s ISR Overmatch?, provides elegant insights into how modern intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems have dramatically changed warfare in the 21st century. Russia could no longer create and deploy troops in secret, as in Operation Uranus, which besieged Stalingrad from the north and south and attacked the German army, ultimately trapping Van Paulus’s Sixth Army. But that doesn’t mean Russia is incapable of hiding where it plans to strike, or of deceiving Ukraine and NATO about its intentions.
I believe the increased military operations by Russia over the past three weeks are part of an offensive that many in the West believe will come in the spring. The next couple of weeks will mark a watershed in the Ukraine war.