The US Department of Agriculture recently released a report forecasting food inflation to rise to 7.1 percent in 2023, a modest improvement from the 9.9 percent increase in 2022. Some staple foods are predicted to increase in price by around ten percent or more this year while others are predicted to decrease slightly. Food prices are forecast to rise 4.2 percent to 10.1 percent.
File screen image, September 2022.
Wages haven’t kept pace with overall inflation since Joe Biden took office in 2021, as this chart of statistics shows:
Wages are even worse against food inflation and will fail to keep up in 2023. Recipients of SNAP benefits (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly food stamps) will see a generous 12.5 percent increase through 2023. Social Security recipients will get a raise. 8.7 percent.
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Excerpts from the USDA report released on January 23:
…In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9 percent. Food prices at home increased by 11.4 percent, while food prices outside the home increased by 7.7 percent. All food price categories tracked by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS) increased by more than 5 percent. Due to the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak, egg prices had the largest price increase (32.2 percent) of any category tracked by ERS between 2021 and 2022. Beef and veal prices increased the least (5.3 percent) between 2021 and 2022, and are generally down from peak prices in November 2021. Eleven food-price categories were above 10 percent, including fats and oils (18.5 percent), poultry (14.6 percent), other meats (14.2 percent), grains and bakery products (13.0 percent), other foods (12.7 percent), dairy products (12.0 percent), processed fruits and vegetables (12.0 percent), non-alcoholic beverages (11.0 percent), and sugar and sweets (10.4 percent). All food categories grew faster than their historical average rates, and the 20-year average inflation rate for all food categories increased.
Food prices are expected to grow more slowly in 2023 than in 2022 but still at historical average rates. In 2023, all food prices are expected to increase by 7.1 percent, with a forecast interval of 4.2 to 10.1 percent. Household food prices are expected to increase by 8.0 percent, with a forecast interval of 4.5 to 11.7 percent. Prices for food away from home are expected to increase by 8.2 percent, with a forecast interval of 6.7 to 9.7 percent.
Retail egg prices increased by 11.1 percent in December 2022 and reached 59.9 percent over December 2021 prices. Ongoing outbreaks of HPAI continue to deplete the US egg-layer flock and poultry flocks to a lesser extent. This decrease is expected to increase wholesale and retail egg prices in the coming months. The HPAI outbreak has driven up egg and poultry prices as more than 57 million birds, 300 commercial flocks and 47 states have been affected. The price effects of the outbreak will be closely monitored. Egg prices are expected to increase by 27.3 percent in 2023, with a forecast interval of 6.9 to 52.0 percent. This wide forecast interval reflects the volatility in retail egg prices.
Prices are expected to increase for eight additional food categories that have experienced steady growth throughout 2022. In 2023, prices are expected to increase for other meats (12.8 percent), dairy products (8.0 percent), fats and oils (16.5 percent), processed fruits and vegetables (9.6 percent), sugar and sweets (10.6 percent), cereals and bakery products ( 12.0 percent), non-alcoholic beverages (8.7 percent), and other foods (6.8 percent). The prediction intervals for each of these classes are strictly above zero.
Price reduction is expected for three price categories. Beef and veal prices are projected to decrease 1.8 percent in 2023, with a forecast interval of -10.4 to 8.0 percent; Pork prices are predicted to decrease by 3.0 percent, with a forecast interval of -10.3 to 5.1 percent; And fresh fruit prices are predicted to fall by 1.7 percent, with a forecast range of -7.5 to 4.5 percent.
SNAP benefits increased by household size in 2023 compared to 2022 (excerpts via Yahoo):
Cost of living adjustment
SNAP benefits are adjusted annually based on the rate of inflation. The announced increase in payments for 2023 – which technically began on October 1, 2022 – is 12.5%. That means households receiving $500 in SNAP benefits from October 1, 2021 to September 30, 2022 will see an increase to $562.50 this year.More top payouts
Beginning October 1, 2022 and running through September 30, 2023, SNAP recipients will see higher maximum benefit amounts. Values vary depending on the size of the qualifying household as follows:A single person: $281 vs. $250; Two people: $516 vs. $459; Three-person: $740 vs. $658; Four persons: $939 vs. $835; Five individuals: $1,116 vs. $992; Six persons: $1,339 vs. $1,190; Seven-person: $1,480 vs. $1,316; Eight persons: $1,691 vs. $1,504, each additional person: $211 vs. $188
