Let’s take Biden at his word (although one could reasonably argue he doesn’t understand what he’s talking about most of the time) – World War III has begun. Not since Nadia Comaneci shocked the world with her performance at the 1976 Olympics have we seen a comparable back flip like Biden’s reversal on sending M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
Will Biden double down and answer President Zelensky’s impassioned calls for American-made F-16s? If past performance predicts future then the answer is yes. But sending F-16s (or any other fighter jet) to Ukraine is a real problem. Don’t take my word for it. Hear from Professor Justin Bronk, editor of RUSI Defense Systems:
First and foremost is the problem of Russia’s dense and highly lethal network of ground-based surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems. Front-line skies in Ukraine are covered by multiple layers of air defense threats ranging from large, long-range systems such as the infamous SA-21 ‘Triumph’ (known as the S-400 in Russia) to numerous and mobile medium-range. SAMs such as the SA-17 ‘Buk’ and the short-range SA-15 ‘Tor’.
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The US has supplied a significant number of AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM) to the UkrAF. . . . But HARM has not come close to eliminating the threat posed by Russian air defenses against Ukrainian jets.
Any Western jet that could be supplied to Ukraine would face the same major threat from Russian SAMs. Even the sheer might of NATO air power would require a serious mission to disrupt Russia’s integrated air defense systems and take casualties in doing so. . . .
However, there is a limit to how effective terrain camouflage can be in the largely flat terrain of eastern and southern Ukraine, and in any case flying at very low altitudes seriously reduces the effectiveness of fighter aircraft in many key missions.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-the-west-is-reluctant-to-give-ukraine-f-16s/
In other words, Ukraine needs the equivalent of a US air force if it hopes to weaken Russia on the battlefield. Not so. If Ukraine succeeds in obtaining the planes and flying them into combat, astronomical costs in terms of airframes and pilots will most likely result.
Debbie Downer’s message is not limited to viewers. Even the Financial Times is now sounding the alarm about the impending problems:
The Financial Times announces an ammunition supply crisis in Europe due to the conflict in Ukraine.
According to the paper, record demand for munitions creates a huge burden on Europe’s industrial capabilities
The conflict in Ukraine has caused a significant crisis in ammunition supplies in Europe, as arms manufacturers try to replenish the states’ national stocks and ensure supplies to Kiev.
According to the FT, record demand for munitions creates a huge burden on Europe’s industrial capabilities. According to experts, Ukraine needs more than 5 thousand shells per day, a small European state orders the same amount annually. Lack of production capacity and lack of critical raw materials have created additional pressure on supply chains. In addition, supply chains disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic have not yet been fully restored.
Marten Brandsegg, CEO of Norwegian-Finnish defense company Nammo, told the publication that demand for some components has grown so much that delivery times to customers have increased from several months to several years. In an effort to meet demand and reduce ammunition production and delivery times, many companies have increased the number of production shifts and are hiring more employees. German Rheinmetall, in particular, plans to build a new plant in Hungary and restart previously idled industries.
https://t.me/sonar_21/614
I will translate. Whatever the United States and the rest of NATO do to increase production of weapons and ammunition, help is years away.
Another major media outlet has changed its tune about Ukraine. Alabama’s Moon provides an excellent summary of the New York Times’ reversal in perspective on the war in Ukraine, with Ukrainians outmatched and suffering in the East brace for Russian aggression. You can read it on their site.
What if Germany manages to send some Leopard tanks to Ukraine? Knowledgeable critics note that it takes several months to train competent tank crews before they are ready to run onto the battlefield. Austrian Colonel Reisner suggested a novel solution to avoid that problem:
I doubt the Grateful Dead’s Jerry Garcia had President Zelensky in mind when he wrote Casey Jones, but I think the lyrics to that classic tune fit the moment. There is trouble ahead and trouble behind.