By Bill Sher for Real Clear Politics
A lot of Republicans are reportedly interested in running for the presidency, though no one is bold enough to start running except for Donald Trump. According to Politico, the reluctance is mainly because everyone wants “someone else” to be the “initial Trump foil.” A potential candidate’s adviser also bought into the idea of ”multiple candidates announcing at the same time”. One anonymous Republican told Politico, “I think a group launch will protect them from Trump.”
Every one of these candidates should be embarrassed. At the risk of cliché, if this wannabe president can’t stand up to Donald Trump, how can you expect him to stand up to — well, insert your preferred boogeyman here.
By the first day of February 2019, Democrats Cory Booker, Julian Castro, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Marion Williamson, and Andrew Yang had formally announced their 2020 bids or formed exploratory committees. In January 2015, Republicans Jeb Bush and Scott Walker established political action committees in advance of their campaign launches, and Mike Huckabee quit his Fox News show in preparation for his bid.
Indeed, none of those people won their primaries; After all, most presidential candidates lose. But if someone starts with minimal national support and mostly regional name recognition — and that describes a potential Republican presidential field — every day not in the race is a day lost. Precisely because the war is uphill, second-tier candidates must be eager to enter the race and create opportunities for themselves so they can climb into the first tier (in the 2020 Democratic primary, Warren was able to do just that. She couldn’t stay there long.)
I’d cut some slack for sitting governors — including Greg Abbott, Brian Kemp, Christy Noem, Chris Sununu and Glenn Youngkin — and Ron DeSantis, who may be in a position to bide his time. He may want to pick up some wins in his 2023 legislative session and then avoid any humiliating defeats before hitting the campaign trail in the spring or summer.
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Members of Congress Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, both of whom have run before, are believed to consider running, and possibly Tim Scott. So what are they waiting for? With control of the House and Senate divided between the two parties, little legislation of importance is expected to pass. In other words, they are not overwhelmed with heavy responsibilities at this time.
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Everyone in the mix — John Bolton, Liz Cheney, Chris Christie, Nikki Haley, Larry Hogan, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo — are “former” officeholders with plenty of free time and no time to lose.
Scattered throughout the Politico story are strange rationalizations for the collective fear of the original-candidates. “Trump is better when he’s got an opponent, so don’t give him one,” said one anonymous operative. How does this plan work? Trump won’t do his best without an opponent, so he withdraws and then all the other candidates declare? “As soon as someone raises their head,” said Abbott adviser Dave Carney, “Trump will pounce on them.” So? A good way for second-tier candidates to enter the first tier is by getting into a public scrap with the front-runners and proving their mettle.
No Republican seems to have learned any lessons from the 2016 primaries. You can’t beat Trump unless you take the fight to Trump forcefully and consistently — and early. The 2016 field could at least plead that they were caught off guard by Trump’s willingness to savage Republicans and his ability to do so without being punished by Republican voters. Today, there is no excuse. Everyone knows who they’re up against and they’ve spent years strategizing to deal with them. Will it be difficult? Definitely. But the President of the United States.
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In a speech to the Republican Jewish Federation in November, Christie said, “It’s time to stop fearing any one person. It is time we stand up for the principles and beliefs on which this party and this country was founded. He was right. Let’s see if he or anyone else can live up to those words.
Syndicated with permission from RealClearPolitics.
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